A new research project led by Francisco Morales, researcher at the Human Development Lab at the Universidad de los Andes, will evaluate the effectiveness of different support programs for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in northern Bulgaria, a region that has historically lagged behind the rest of the country and the European Union in economic development.
The study will focus on firms operating in sectors such as retail, services and manufacturing, comparing traditional business training programs with new approaches that incorporate artificial intelligence–based tools. The goal is to generate rigorous evidence on which types of support are most effective in improving firm performance and promoting regional economic growth.
The project is part of the European Regional Competitiveness Policy Lab, an initiative aimed at producing high-quality evidence to inform regional development policies across Europe. The research is conducted in collaboration with scholars from Tilburg University (Netherlands), the World Bank, and the Universidad de los Andes (Chile), and will be implemented on the ground in partnership with the Bulgarian Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion Agency (BSMEPA).
The evaluation will use a randomized experimental design, assigning participating firms to different intervention groups in order to measure the causal impact of each type of support. This approach will allow researchers to compare standard training programs with technology-assisted tools, including AI-based solutions designed to help entrepreneurs improve decision-making, management practices and market strategies.
Recruitment of firms and baseline data collection are expected to take place between June and September 2026, with randomization scheduled for September of the same year. The interventions will run through the end of 2027 and will include multiple follow-up rounds to measure short- and medium-term effects.
Among the expected outcomes are improvements in sales, productivity, profitability and exports, as well as greater adoption of modern management practices and digital tools among participating firms.
Beyond its academic contribution, the project seeks to inform public policy by identifying which models of business support are more effective, persistent and cost-efficient. The results could guide future regional development programs in Bulgaria and other less-developed areas of Europe, contributing to the design of policies aimed at reducing economic disparities within the European Union.
